August 15, 2022
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Geopolitics in Asia may change faster
As the new geo-political environment is unfolding , India and United States have declared that they are ready to play a bigger role in the Asian strategic landscape with a renewed vision to overcome a gap in the balance of power in the region. The changing geo-politics of Asia in which China is fast emerging as a power to be reckoned with, cannot be ignored forever. This realization is perhaps behind the proximity between the two powers who are looking for a new role for each other in the region. The history of global power matrix tells us one thing that no existing power can forever stop a rising power. China’s emergence into global power politics is a natural phenomenon. Although there are some ambiguities over a new order, the fact is that China is going to dominate this century. But the worry about China on another front is quite grim. China is fast expanding its military power projection and recasting its relations with many new countries in the Afro-Asian region. However, others would like to know if China emerges to the center stage then what will be China’s world view and what kind of a global or regional order it would like to see for itself and for the region. Although Beijing’s intentions remained cache for most of the time, off late there are some indications. Now China’s maritime silk route project is going to dominate the strategic thrust of the great vision that the Communist Party of China is quite interested to pursue for some time. Many senior CPC leaders privately admit if China does not try to dominate the Asian continent now then tomorrow could be too late for recapturing the lost ground. China also has land silk route project. Both perhaps could merge in the Atlantic sphere.

This is going to wane US influence forever, if at all it happens in near or distant future. The US, once a hyper power, is now into decline. All over the world, American power is facing challenges, hatred and diminishing impact. China may take advantage of it. Last year, Beijing joined countries from Europe to bail out Euro Zone economies. Now China demands technology in return as a favor, apart from loan money. If China’s strategy to converge maritime silk route with land silk route succeeds, then US influence will take beating. It is another story that Beijing will use the economy and trade for political purpose at a later stage. Yet, the US rebalancing policy towards Asia will suffer a drubbing. Since America wanted to come to Asia which it had conveniently abandoned in the post-Cold War era, there is a debate whether US will now abandon Europe. Since WWII Europe has remained the corner stone of American foreign policy by creating NATO and other bodies. That is why US has been able to impose its will through such actors. Off late, these European actors are falling one after another economically. More new countries will join Euro-zone crisis. Now it is the turn of France but financial experts believe even Germany will plunge into a recession by end of 2016. The export oriented German economy is facing sluggishness due to weak demand for its high end goods. That churn will further caution America to extend a helping hand towards Europe as it can prove to be a black-hole. This might offer a new window for China to make inroads into Europe.

This will change the balance of power in Europe and rest of the world. Even if the US is going to pursue an active Asia pivot policy with all seriousness, there will be flaws in its strategic thinking. No Asian country is sure about the Asia pivot policy forget about its success, most even question can US lift the weight it has thrown off. By roping India along with its vision for Asia Pacific and Indian Ocean region, the US may get some leverage out of India’s resources. The US knows it cannot be unilateral any more, thus it needs partners for its policy to succeed. But India will have its own calculations. The US wants to upset China’s ambition first. But if it does the same to India’s ambition later, then options will be far too few. China’s emergence into power board is creating lot of churning but whether American pivot policy can really meet the requirement one will have to wait. Some smaller Asian nations feel it is better to have China, US and India under one platform. India always respects rule of law, values and sensitive about certain issues on which both US and China have aggressive posturing. By bringing India into fold, the US may draw some immediate benefit but India can play a more constructive role in the region. India’s civilizational links with both Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean go back to thousands of years. This gives a special position to India to look for freinds on the basis of mutual interests and common destiny. At the same time, both US and China are having global ambitions and both are already into a power race. Although India needs to think about its future, the Indo-US relations should be recalibrated to suit geo political interests of the entire region. Any aggressive design could sink the boat before it could sail out to search for its rightful place in the vast ocean surface.