June 26, 2022
  • add
  • add
Geopolitical power play to upset present equation in Asia
The new equations which are emerging out of intense rivalry by global powers to redefine the current geopolitics in Asia can change the present order in the world as a whole. Everything is going for a fresh start. Existing powers are in serious clash with the emerging powers to retain their preeminence. But change is the order of universe. Nothing stands as it is forever. Thus, existing powers which had emerged soon after the Second World War in the 40s are exhausted and coming to a near finish. For example, Britain which still wants to be called as Great Britain is going to be a country of unemployed in coming decades. British industrial might which propelled Britain into super power is almost in its twilight. It is fading like a comet. Now the greatness of Britain will cease to exist by 2060 as per a study which was partly funded by the British Foreign and Commonwealth office some years ago. This means all four nations forming the empire will part their ways, some are already in that mode. Similarly, other European powers are facing bleak future. This however does not rule out their access to investment or technology, at least for some more years, because the fall is seen only when it touches the ground. As long as it is in the air or in a passive decline mode it remains invisible. Indeed, Karl Marx had once made a scathing observation about the repetition of historical cycle and going by that most existing powers will be bankrupt by end of this decade. Yet, they will not easily give up their past supremacy. This will lead to a tussle and power play. Asia is in the midst of that process. When all other continents are falling behind, Asia is surging ahead. Thus, Asia is the driver of global economic growth.

Invariably this will draw lot of attention. Some old issues will be raked and new emerging conflict related issues can be made. Unfortunately, Asian countries are new to power matrix except Japan. Since the power is coming in an Asian centric manner some are becoming hyper ambitious without much logic. Their rise without any accidence to values and devoid of rule of law will plunge them into a crisis rather than consolidating their position positively. Now, all top ranking global powers are camping in Asia and on its landscape on a permanent basis. This means Asia will have lot of new neighbors who are old masters in power play. It is like first setting up a police station in a colony, then automatically there will be climbing crime rate and growing number of criminals to justify the creation of police station. Similarly, the power equation is changing. This time it is in favor of Asian continent. Therefore, Asian nations should interact and share a common vision for achieving peace and prosperity. If only one nation or a few group of nations become greedy and try to dominate others then there will be reprisal. This will lead to fight and hatred. The outcome of success must be shared, otherwise victory will breed hatred. This was exactly the case for Europeans and precursor of world wars in the early 20th century. In fact, some experts believe the same might happen as we are into early 21st century. But the nature of competition may be different due to change of time. Yet, the fundamentals remain same. It is all about striking a balance to the new order. The global new order will include some emerging powers and discard some old powers. In that process, the left out buggies will react.    
Some nations are just harping on their past to control the events and outcome of history. But it will not remain same for far too long. In fact, politicians are realizing that for too long, empty pledges and fine words have died in their mouths – now is the time to turn promises into action for this generation. Despite changing time and free flow of information some nations are still reluctant to come to terms with the present. This is proving to be a crisis point. So the conflict is going to spread out vehemently among former powers and emerging powers. For that Asia is being made as a possible theatre of conflict. All new weapons and modern strategies will be tested here at some point. While resources competition and establishment of political supremacy will continue to be the guiding principle of new power dimension, terrorism will lead to a civilizational notion for igniting conflict. So Asia will face a complex challenge of growth and how to manage contradictions as there will be many stake holders. The NATO is trying hard to expand into Asian scenario. It has been intervening in sea in the name of piracy and in land warfare on the pretext of terrorism. On the top of it, missile deployment and power rivalry give fillip to ambitions that there will be need for new generation war machines. In case of Asian context, the rise of China will upset lot of calculations. The Americans knew in the seventies that China’s rise is unstoppable but they quietly aided China against Soviet Union. Once the goal was achieved with the demise of Soviet empire, now the focus turns towards democracy and equitable world order.