November 23, 2017
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Victims of terrorism and geopolitics in South Asia
The entire region of South Asia and adjoining areas could soon witness their path to development may get overpowered by growth of terrorism. To tackle this is a huge challenge by itself. But if states get into sponsoring such activities it can be far more dangerous. The Asian regions most of them are smaller countries are looking for better life for their citizens and opting for a strong economic growth. Only a handful of them, which includes Pakistan, are not very comfortable with such ideas of collective growth and mutual respect for peaceful existence. To say that all the problems the region is facing can be a leftover of history appears to be naïve. History never asks for correction on its own. Those practice to further their vested interests they use history for a suitable interpretation. The geopolitics around the world is changing to set forth a new world order. This will take time to get into full existence. But it will open an interim phase in the process like nature does to all its actions. In this period there will be chaos and conflict. Before the dust could fully settle some elements will take advantage of this placidity. This can help them to overpower others and advance their own interests in a manner which can satisfy their urge to establish supremacy. The recent Uri attack and spate of other attacks since early this year against India may seem to be isolated acts from time to time. But they can be an orchestrated farce which is now creating tension in the whole South Asian region. Peace is the precursor to development, if countries make it a state policy to create instability so that they can benefit , then others need to think in an innovative way. History says a country like Pakistan has benefitted from Afghan Jihad in the late seventies. The Chinese had hugely benefitted in the sixties due to their animosity with the Soviets. In South China Sea, the Chinese raised a talk of a map which is in possession of Taiwan to justify nine dash line which has now been dumped as an utter trash by the International Court of Justice.   

The interpretation of history to ignite conflict or upset existing peace and stability can be a gross violation of civilized way of dealings. Now both Pakistan and China who are playing an active role in the region are keen to raise such topics to exploit. While China keeps the tension to a manageable level, Pakistan has no understanding of a red line. Since the Americans are withdrawing from the region, China finds it the right time to enter into South Asian and Central Asian theatre to pursue its ambition regardless of consequences. India is in the middle of a transition economically, politically and strategically. After the Modi government came to power, both China and Pakistan are feeling nervous. The reason is India will now stand up to this dual front threat to the whole region unlike UPA government. This is making a wave of calculations by both China and Pakistan. While China says that Kashmir is leftover of history, Pakistan says Kashmir is the core issue for its survival. According to British archives, the Indian Independence act of 1947 and Radcliffe Boundary Commission had annulled any claim or legality of Kashmir to Pakistan at any point. But Pakistan has forcefully championed that it has a right to raise the matter as a dispute because majority of Kashmiri people are Muslims and Pakistan is a Muslim country so it has a natural right to accede the territory from India. Now China which is trying to push its hegemony in Asian region finds the Kashmir region as a bigger corridor to push its interests. The CPEC and related Chinese strategic interests are revolving around the myth that India is soon going to fade as a power in the region. Then Beijing can find it as an opportunity to impose its will.

Although the Chinese are good students of history, the CPC politburo is being seen as unrealistic in many cases recently. This happens due to inflated ego and hyper ambition. China is in a hurry to become something at a global stage. Thus, China finds India as a competitor and a soft state which was defeated by the PLA in 1962 war. All this is history and that was a different India. Now, even India can fight a limited scale dual front war. Anyway, China can never be the winner again. Yet, Beijing’s strategy could be through Pakistan it wants to implement the OROB to showcase the South Asian neighbors that it is the true economic guarantor for them. This will in turn help China to attract more friends into the ring. It is easier said than done. In no day, Jinping can ever match neither Mao nor Deng. This is a day dream. There is no harm in having such dreams but it should not affect the stability. Since CPEC is being implemented by the Pakistani military as an alternative to US pullout from the region, the generals are using China as a security guarantor for their mischief. By the way China is also a party to Kashmir problem since it has also taken a slice of Kashmiri territory. Now, will China regard Baluchistan as a leftover of history?