April 22, 2021
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Stalking enemies
Dual front threat: Pakistan may increase more LoC violations

Radio interceptions suggest that Pakistan is planning to launch more border teasing acts with India to draw the latter into a conflict which will benefit Islamabad to draw world attention and make the relevance of Pakistan Army’s declining image at home to resist military reforms.

Pakistan government under the leadership of Nawaz Sharif is planning to carry out austerity measures and put up a punishing budget cut on military expenditure by end of this year or early next year.

This has upset top echelons of Pakistan Army which is trying to restore its public image by picking a fight with India or a possible border skirmish in coming months to justify their relevance to the state and people of Pakistan.

Pakistan military finds luring India into a war or a mini war like situation will help tremendously. On the other hand, if India is engaged with Pakistan in the LoC, Islamabad feels India will lose out at LAC with China.

Thus, putting India into a dual front scenario could drain out India faster and it will in return make Pakistan’s job easier.

Thus, recent radio interceptions and various satellite imagery pictures show that Pakistan military is aggressively putting out offensive and defencesive postures at various critical sectors such as Khemkaran, Poonch and Uri.

Even China is banking up on drawing India into a dual front scenario where latter’s resources are divided. In Arunachal Pradesh, Sikkim and Ladakh sector it is planning to launch electronic warfare stations to launch cyber attacks to cripple Indian military assets.

On two occasions since April this year, Chinese signal intelligence networks have damaged Indian radio communications and paralyzed military communications for several hours in a bid to stop timely contacts with command and control at the backend.

China is keen that Pakistan must engage India at both LoC and International Borders so that India’s strike corps could get caught off guard at a time when it will be a national issue and the government would channelize most resources in that direction.

Now, Pakistan is doing almost same and sending border action teams to locations which are less expected by the India side.

Now China is also conducting a whole border reconnaissance all along the LAC to determine India’s deployment strength and Chinese soldiers are often asked by PLA topbrass not to carry fully loaded weapons while sneaking into Indian side of the LAC.

The strategy is a single miss fire may provoke India to retaliate. But China wants to first make a string assessment of Indian strength and then engage India in few sectors to test its military response capacity.

Slowly it can go for a graduated response depending upon strategic needs and force India to dry out its resources with Pakistan at the same time.

Thus, recent border attacks and unprovoked firing by Pakistan is part of a grand design that may test India’s patience and military preparedness, on the top of it political will to fight a war, if a dual front scenario emerges or imposed by the enemies.

While China is busy in erecting border infrastructure that is suitable for a protracted border war with India, Pakistan is keen that it should push enough terrorists into India before snow fall that can engage Indian military from behind the enemy lines.